Monday 28th of June 2021


Social Media Says

My house appraised for 150k more than I bought it for when I refinanced, sucks to know that i could sell and make a mint but I couldn't replace the house because everybody else's values are also up.
Housing is not an investment, its a basic need. Imagine if they limited the supply of clothing, and we were all walking around naked waiting for a parents to die to own a pair of pants. That is how ludicrous the housing market is.

Same. Except I sold mine last October thinking I made out like a bandit and now my birdman handrub has ground to a halt looking at the fact I could've doubled the proceeds had i waited 6 more months. Oh well, I'm still fine with what I got out of it. There's really no way to predict something this insane.

What You Really Think

Houses are being bought up in masse across the country by corporations protecting their money for a major recession incoming. People are being offered cash well over asking for their houses by corporations who are holding them for the next market crash, they expect inflation to skyrocket.

You went through all that effort to sell your home and didn't think once about the fact that any home you'd buy to replace it would ALSO be overpriced?

The trick now is to buy first, sell second.

The house we sold in 2015 is back on the market at a much higher price but no one is buying. Its been on there for awhile.

If your house was overvalued, you didnt think all the other ones would be too?

Rent right now. The market has to eventually correct to some extent. Then the money you made on the sale will buy you even for the money.

Yikes how long do you have to find something to buy before capital gains tax hits you?

You actually lucked out. Rent is generally down in the past year. So lock in a low rental price and ride out the housing price wave until prices come back down a bit.

You didnt have a plan for where you would live after you sold your house?

IMO the market is bubbling, you might have your chance yet.

Did you sell it to a corporation to cuck other American families?

Somehow I got lucky selling at a markeup while also buying a place that was pre-market right as prices were going up but people weren't broadly aware that places were going above asking. Ended up moving to a newer place, smaller yard, less upkeep, similar size, 3 blocks away, for $250,000 less.

Corporate serfdom, here we come! why the global housing grab isn't front page news is beyond my comprehension. it's going to be too late by the time everyone figures out what's going on. it's going to be very, very tragic.

The rich are already buying up everything.

This. "If housing was 50% reduced I could buy!" But the rich are buying today, at inflated prices. If prices start dropping they can afford to buy and have cash on hand to pick them up at will. And they will. It's an investment that pays off itself that can be rented indefinitely for profit or sold for a profit.   If there were rent controls and the rent cannot pay the mortgage on an over valued property, they wouldn't be purchased as investments. Demand would be reduced, supply increases. But that's a whole different pickle.

I mean we could just expand housing supply and fix this problem pretty easily. The economics and engineering are very easy its mostly just NIMBYism and the land use politics that cater to it that are constraining supply in most American metros. House prices in Houston have not spiked nearly as much relative to its explosive population growth, mostly because they have no zoning laws. Its just easier to build housing there so its not as expensive.

Yeah people dont seem to realize that if the market crashes banks wont exactly be lining up to give out mortgages.

No time for a crash this time round, Blackrock is already buying up property over asking price.

Yeah after the last crash trying to get any kind of mortgage as a first time buyer was nearly impossible for years. Even harder than it is now. Plus those who have just gotten started with maybe 10% of their lvt paid off? If their house crashes you think they can afford that mortgage once their fixed term runs out after a crash? Crashes sound good but don't really help Those at the bottom like you'd think.

The 07 crash happened because banks were irresponsibly lending to people who couldn't afford the loan.

It's wild to think how for many Americans 6 figures is a fucking fantasy. I'm barely 25k this year from the looks of it myself. And at the same time rents fucking redonkulous.

Bro I make almost $80k a year and even with a good credit score, I still can't get a house...

Solar electrician here, took home $29k after taxes last year, and thats with 5-10 OT hours almost weeks. Its hard to think about doing this for another 40 years til I can get social security. I want to kill myself everyday.

You just gotta move further from the city. Like really far.

How? I made like double that working retail at a comic book shop while like 19 and in college.

I make over 100k a year as a tattoo artist where 100k is well over what your average family makes, work my ass off working class, just paid off my house at 29, but im putting my husband thru medical school so actually technically below the poverty line. what a time to be alive. editing to say the house i paid off is a mobile home. i had to move out after high school because my dad had a stroke and my family couldnt afford for me to live with them anymore. i worked FOUR jobs while i apprenticed, spent the last 10 years of my life waiting in line at the food bank, did side gigs, never slept, worked my fingers to the bone and just this last year got to this point. ive been poor my entire life. i work 60 hours a week. im not trying to brag, i was trying to make a point that even when if you are making money that you can be proud of and an amount that people strive for, it is STILL a struggle in this shit economy and capitalistic hellscape trying to support yourself and your family. i live in a fucking trailer park and barely make ends meet. my husband has a chronic illness that bleeds the bank account dry. his college tuition isnt cheap and we have god knows how many years to go. i have nothing in savings, no medical insurance, no retirement fund - and still, now that ive finally made it to this point, i make this money because i have to. its going to be a long time before i will benefit from the fruits of my labor. and when i do, if i do, i still wont forget where i came from and will do everything i can to help people who are struggling. i can see now that my comment maybe seemed insensitive, but that wasnt my intention. my intention was to show that there is almost no amount of money a working class person can make in the united states and still feel secure. hope you can see where im coming from.


My friend, keep kicking. I know folks with 3 figure incomes that cant get a home.

Just found out I make 19000 after taxes ((((((: full time.

Just closed on a place two weeks ago, we literally had to fire our first mortgage company because the appraisal came back ridiculously low - even in a regular market for the house, and of course we got in a bidding war so we probably overpaid. (we contested it, the appraiser clearly phoned things in and there were many lies and inaccuracies in the report but the mortgage company decided to not have another appraisal done). Found a new mortgage company, and that appraisal came in for 15K over the sale price - it's all arbitrary anyway is what I realized.

It's tragic. they won't stop until they own every home along with everything else essential to survival.

Yeah, it's almost like recessions are good for the rich in the long run.

Investment firms are positioning themselves to be feudal lords.

Lost an offer on a house yesterday, winning bid was $60K over ask, all cash, waived everything.

We're all going to be renting from Blackrock eventually.

There's still a few of those townhouses available for that price but not many and they're going fast.

Yeah a pal of mine bought a little 4 unit townhouse row in a remote suburb of our city in 2017 for like 600k. 150k per unit for 1100 sq ft 2/2s on the water. Just sold it for a million even. It's because people are flooding the suburbs to wfh.

I bought a shortsale 4 bedroom, 3 bath ranch in 2014 for $78,500. Zillow has it estimated at $225,000. There is no way I'm selling. I'll never find another house for $700 per month.

I bought a house in Jersey for $385k 6 months ago, Zillow has it estimated at $440k now.

My sister's condo was $150k when she bought it, it's a low income and high crime area with limited parking or amenities. Her condo was recently estimated at $350k.

I mean there is a big difference between a bubble and a shortage and its not super clear which were in. Id argue its much more shortage than bubble. ]Here's a thorough explanation of why it's so bad](). TLDR: **The number of new houses constructed per person in the rich world has fallen by half since the 1960s** because local homeowners oppose new construction in their neighborhoods. Places that dont have so many building restrictions like Houston and Tokyo dont have such high home prices. Tokyo dramatically liberalized land-use rules, so now ]home prices stay affordable even when population increases](). ]Here's a great video about the sorts of "missing middle" housing]()--rowhouses, small apartments, triplexes, etc--that are illegal or nearly-illegal to build almost everwhere in North America. While I think it's brain-dead obvious that it should be legal to build skyscrapers in most parts of most cities, I personally love medium-density neighborhoods which are convenient, attractive, affordable, walkable, really good for kids, and would take a *huge* bite out of the housing shortage in most cities. This goes way deeper--density is better for climate, pollution, racial segregation, inequality, obesity, and more. But that's enough for now, I'll just note that ]bad housing policy directly causes homelessness]() in addition to all the above.

I doubt we will. It could happen but without stated income loans, illegal inflated appraisals, way too much inventory, and the other aspects of the last crash its unlikely. The crazy prices right now are just a function of insanely high demand and low inventory. Itll level out for sure but not crash.

It's nothing like 08, there won't be a crash, and it likely won't even settle for two more years.

They do say the A in Zillow is for accuracy.

All someone needs to do is change a 1 to a 0.

08 was a crash because of bad mortgages. Houses right now are being bought up with cash, because A) the demand is crazy and B) the banks don't want people to inevitably end up underwater, so they're being very conservative handing out mortgages.

Its just hedge fund money moving into real estate.

I'm in Canada, it's a horror show. Working poor are being evicted and then there are bidding wars over rent for available units. The current housing disaster seems like a global problem...

Like the other guy said, Canada is absolutely insane. Toronto/Vancouver are just nuts.

I live in the south and I have no idea where you could get that right now. I love our low COL down here but this crazy market is effecting us too.

This is the real problem that not enough people are talking about.

Yeah I wish them luck protecting it. Soon it will all be turn apart by the recently homeless for scrap copper.

100%. Come to terms with the new American dream.

If the housing market tanks the people who cant afford houses now are going to be unemployed, not buying dirt cheap houses while the Monopoly Man frowns from his solid gold car. Recessions dont hurt the wealthy, wealthy people/corporations buy up lots of cheap assets during them because they have lots of extra money laying around.

No dates.

If you search /RealEstate people have been saying the same thing for 5 years. If you listen to people saying that they can time the market, all you're going to do is lose money. Buy a primary residence when you're personally and financially ready and plan on staying for at least 5 years. Everything else is completely white noise.

It's coming. Probably even sooner than 8 months.

Y'all act like you get to keep other people from moving. This is the point of the union. You have absolutely no more right to Arizona cause you were born there than anyone else who wants to move there. Get used to it dude.

Same in Texas.

We seem to be at a point where regional pricing for things doesn't make any sense, we are so interconnected any more that not having a universal plan really is fucking things up for everyone...

Lake Mead is diminishing rapidly, and things will only get worse. Arizona is forecast to be in a Tier 2 shortage by the end of 2022, in less than two years. Climate change means the rate will most likely accelerate, as it is already doing. We could see levels reach within five feet of 1020 feet, what many consider the lake's "crash point", by 2025. The Colorado River is being drained at an unsustainable rate, it hasn't reached the ocean in years. Major water cuts and rationing are coming to Arizona sooner than people think, and it will have an enormous impact on the area's long-term habitability.

> ts definitely not smart to buy a house right now. This is completely inaccurate. You're insinuating you can time the housing market. You can't. As long as you plan on 1. living there for 5 years 2. can afford it you should buy whenever you are financially and personally ready. Trying to time the market will simply cost you money and stress. If you're are 100% confident in a broad scale pull back put your money where your mouth is and push all liquid assets into shorting REITs and mortgage writers. After all if you know this is a sure thing, you shouldn't consider this risky at all right?

Eh. We are buying our forever house. Our family is as big as it will ever be. Even if its inflated how much will that matter in 20-30 years? Its a bad idea short term. But if youre financially solid and need a bigger home to keep long term - its ok to buy. At least we have one to sell so we get some money back that way.

Uhhhhhh but rates were below 3% which means that is literally, actually, not just using those words for dramatic effect- free money if you are anticipating increased inflation (which you should be).

Some of the key factors from 2008 aren't in play right now. We may see a leveling off if supply somehow increases, but I don't think we're going to see a crash. We'll probably see prices climb higher before they level off.

Being upside down only matters if you need to sell. If you just keep living in it and making the payments then it really doesn't matter. Obviously you can't predict when you need to sell though, that's the risk.

I want to know too! Great question!

Depends. That and if last time is anything to go by... it's going to be less about owners deciding to sell and more about foreclosures and owners being forced to sell. Which, harsh but... I have to say I'm waiting in a dirt cheap rental for a "market correction" to buy again.

Not true either. Totally depends on more factors. The crisis in 2008 had a lot of people selling, especially in the years that followed.

No. That's only the morons who are buying things for insane prices in cash because no sane lender will loan them the money because they know the houses are not worth those prices. Fomo buyers will be under water for sure, as is customary. Or they won't care because it's boomers buying their forever home. Normal people will continue as normal.

Maybe, but the forclosure and tax auction sales really open up.

People cant sell now because they cant buy another house because they are all inflated costs. So were back where we started.

Nah they'd get foreclosed on and the house would end up on the market eventually. The problem is that supply wouldn't increase enough to eclipse demand. After 2008, the new lending restrictions wiped out risky buyers as a category, which caused demand to plummet. Plus all the less risky buyers had just recently bought a house and weren't gonna just buy another one. We literally had too many houses relative to the number of people who had stable enough income to buy one, which is why investors ended up buying all the foreclosures at a steep discount since nobody else wanted them. We have the opposite problem today, not enough houses for everyone with stable enough income. Even if millions of houses get foreclosed on, these people would just buy them all up without allowing prices to go down much, if at all. You'd have to build millions more houses in excess of what is actually needed (like what China did with their ghost cities, or what builders did pre-2008) in order to drive prices down by any significant margin.

Bingo. And a dramatic price drop in home prices means investment firms will scoop them all up and rent them to the people who got foreclosed on. Rinse and repeat.

No, it's not. It will only get worse unless new laws are made (they won't be) to stop firms like BlackRock from buying up all the desirable homes. We'll be living in a new feudal age if this trend continues. America's landlord will be a select few firms of financial elite scumbags.

Hey that's funny. I've heard this said for the last 6 years.

Doubt it. A country like Canada, that have invested billions into the housing economy through low interests rates, cannot afford a crash and will do everything to keep it afloat and everyone who took out mortgages to buy homes. Stats are showing that most middle class earners are in the largest saving period in a long time, so when you have a large amount of middle class with vast savings "waiting" for an economy to crash and cash in, chance are, it won't work. We're going to be in this ride for quite some time. I kept hearing about a crashing for the past 10 years and nothing has happened, nothing will happen. Prices will probably plateau at some point when interest rates slightly increase.

And if you blame capitalism Americans still lose their shit. Dumb fucks.

Its about to. Probably in the next few months.

Townhome? condo?

40 days is pretty optimistic. I just hope youre right lol.

When was that?

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